GoldUSD 2,342.00   per Ounce
SilverUSD 27.83   per Ounce
PlatinumUSD 984.50   per Ounce
PalladiumUSD 1,055.80   per Ounce

Week In Review

11/17/23

Since our last posting we saw precious metals prices drop, then rebound over the last few days as stagnant economic news led to a decline in the value of the dollar relative to other major currencies.  The dollar currently stands at 1.0855 to the Euro, 1.2416 to the pound and the Yen stands at 150.65 to the dollar after again popping over 151 to the dollar.
 
Inflation was flat last month with the year over year number retreating to 3.2%.  The PPI was negative last month and the year over year rate of increase retreated to 1.3%
 
Retail sales were down from the same month last year.  This was the first decline in 7 months and shows that the consumer sector is weak.  We still believe that holiday sales will be flat or lower than last year as consumers reevaluate their spending habits to prioritize necessities over luxuries.
 
Record industrial demand for silver is likely to support prices for the next 6 to 12 months even as  investment demand has slowed in recent months mainly due to government meddling with prices in India, (which had seen silver at a significant premium over world spot prices) and a restructuring of the VAT in Germany to capture more tax revenues on precious metals sales.
 
This week we are continuing our special on random design 10 ounce silver bars at $1.69 over spot.
 
Have a great week!

11/4/23

The precious metals markets were largely drifting sideways since our last posting until today’s jobs report and subsequent spikes in both Gold and Silver.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) there were 150,000 net new jobs created last month which takes into account 35,000 LOST jobs in the manufacturing sector.  More troubling is that 58,000 of those new jobs were in government, leading to a greater burden on the private sector which funds those jobs.  Another 19,000 of those jobs were “social assistance” related which, although private sector, are largely funded through government programs or direct grants.  Unemployment ticked up to 3.9%
 
The (charitably) mediocre jobs report along with the FED keeping interest rates unchanged, and consumer spending outpacing wage growth (yet again) contributed to the dollar losing value against all major currencies in trading today.  Some of the increases in Gold and Silver prices can be attributed to the FOREX markets.  As of this writing the Euro was at $1.0728, the Pound at $1.2377, and the Yen rebounded to 149.4 to the dollar.
 
Bond yields dipped on capital inflows and the likelihood that the FED will leave interest rates unchanged through the end of the year as the economy slows.  The PCE numbers from late last week were in line with expectations.  Q-3 GDP showed growth of 4.9%, above consensus expectations, but we suspect there will be a downward revision next reporting cycle as adjustments for inflation and other factors are taken into account.
 
Israel began its ground offensive into Gaza, but at this point Hezbollah has remained largely on the sidelines.  The oil markets have calmed some on this development, but that could change quickly and dramatically should attacks escalate on Israel’s northern and/or eastern borders.  Any significant increase in military activity on either front would likely lead to another spike in oil and precious metals prices.
 
This week we are continuing our sale on random mint 10 ounce silver bars for just $1.69 over spot per ounce.
 
Have a great week!

10/26/23

Markets have shown some rational stability over the last week, some of it due to institutional profit taking after the previous week‘s run-up, some of it due to Israel’s delay in beginning its ground offensive into Gaza.  The pause will likely remain in place for the near term barring a major change in the scale of the war between Israel and Hamas/Hezbollah which would include a full scale ground incursion into the Gaza Strip.
 
The Dollar remained solid in the FOREX markets.  The Yen again lost value falling to 150.1 to the Dollar, marking only the 2nd time in the last 10 years it has been over the 150 mark.  The Euro is at $1.0565 and the Pound is at $1.2104, largely unchanged from this time last week.
 
There were no outlying discrepancies between results and expectations in U.S. economic news over the last week as we await the reporting of Q-3 GDP numbers and the PCE index for last month.  Those results are released Thursday and Friday respectively.
 
This week we are running random mint 10 ounce silver bars for just $1.69 over spot per ounce.
 
Have a great week!

10/19/23

Gold and Silver prices recovered from their lows of a few weeks ago to get back to levels we saw in mid-September.  Continued fighting in Israel with the prospect of the war widening to encompass Hezbollah in Lebanon and perhaps attacks from both Syria and Iran have created the flight to safety that we traditionally see in times of global uncertainty.  Gold has risen around $100 per ounce (5%) over the last 10 trading days.  Silver is up nearly $2.00 per ounce (about 9%) over the same time frame.  We anticipate continued strength in metals on the backs of the Israel/Hamas conflict and continuing Russian aggression in Ukraine.

In domestic economic news we saw increases in both the PPI and CPI that show that inflation remains stubbornly strong at all levels.  Wholesale inventories were down slightly. Consumer sentiment moved lower while consumer spending remains elevated, but just barely outpacing inflation.
We anticipate consumer spending during the holiday season will be flat year-over-year as people will carry the same approach as last year, front loading holiday shopping to take advantage of sales and other promotions.  Even though consumer spending is currently strong, we see the tightening credit markets and higher interest rates leading to a slowdown in Q-4 and into Q1 2024.

The Dollar held it’s own last week in the FOREX markets, with exchange rates remaining largely unchanged from the previous week.  For those who don’t follow currencies, a weakening Dollar vs the Euro, Pound and Yen generally leads to an increase in the prices of  Precious Metals whereas a strengthening dollar has the opposite effect.  When we look at charts and trends we also look at the FOREX markets to see if the activity (up or down) is organic, like it has been this week, or based on currency fluctuations which can create the illusion of a gain or a loss.  

This week are continuing our sale on Random Date Australian Silver Kangaroos

Have a great week!

10/12/23

Most economic news last week was inline with expectations, but an exceptionally strong jobs report will keep pressure on the FED to consider another rate hike either this month or in November.  A good portion of the “new” jobs in the report could be attributed to seasonal hiring in the retail sector, and the number of public sector jobs also showed a significant increase.  Wages are going up, but are not keeping pace with inflation.  

In the FOREX markets the uncertainty in U.S. Congress is at least partially responsible for the dollar losing value to the Pound and Euro, although the Yen was unable to gain any traction and is still trading at multi-month lows against the dollar at 149:1. 

Metals in General had dropped to the lowest levels in several months until rebounding beginning Monday after Hamas launched a massive attack on Israel.  Hostilities are ongoing and it’s uncertain at this point if the situation can be contained without spreading into a much broader conflict involving Syria, Iran and/or Hezbollah operating out of Lebanon.

Oil prices spiked on the initial news of the attacks but have settled some today while silver and gold remain on an upward trend due to the chaos in the middle east, and fresh dollar weakness in the FOREX markets.

In our opinion Silver is still undervalued both in relation to current Gold prices and overall given the current uncertain state of global affairs. 

This week we are running a special on Random Year Silver Kangaroos $2.95 over spot. Any Quantity. Shop Now!

Have a great week!

10/04/23

Most economic news from last week was inline with expectations with no major surprises. The few items that missed to the downside were within the expected range with the exception of a large drop in pending home sales as increasing interest rates continue to squeeze real estate. There is a level of enhanced trepidation in the commerial real estate market as office vacancies remain stubbornly high at least partly as a result of greater acceptance of hybrid work schedules among corporate executives. The strong dollar continues to be a drag on commodity prices. The dollar has gained about 3-4% against the Euro and the Pound over the last few weeks and is trading near a one year high against the yen at 149 Yen to the Dollar.

This week we are featuring a special on United States Silver Eagles at $3.95 over spot, BACK DATES only, any quantity, dates our choice. These are all fresh original Uncirculated coins. Special runs through 10-10-2023. Limited to stock on hand.

Have a great week!!

9/27/23

As expected, the FED held interest rates steady last month.  This was at least partially due to the FED meeting happening just a few days after the announcement of CPI and PPI numbers.  The October meeting should be more interesting if inflation numbers come in hotter than expected, and could lead to another 25 basis point increase in interest rates.  In the consumer credit markets we are seeing a spike in rejected new credit card applications.  With consumer debt again at record levels, credit card issuers are more reluctant to give potential borrowers the benefit of the doubt when they make their decisions about issuing new cards.  Lack of new credit availability coupled with the return of student loan payments, many families are going to be tightening their belts and limiting the amount of non essential purchases in the coming months.  We expect a slower than “normal” holiday shopping season due to higher prices and lack of buying power due to constrained credit markets.  

In spite of these headwinds the dollar remains strong. Stocks and metals have been trending down over the last few weeks while bond interest rates increased, making bonds more attractive.  While we do not buy into the notions of some “analysts” that gold will hit $5,000 and silver over $100 in the near term we are firm in our belief that gold and silver still function as the best hedge against inflation and store of value available to the average citizen.  At some point continued overspending in D.C. is going to create an untenable situation moving forward and the dollar is going to see significant deterioration in desirability since it seems clear that our leaders are not taking fiscal responsibility seriously on either side of the aisle.

This week we are featuring a special on United States Silver Eagles at $3.95 over spot, BACK DATES only, any quantity, dates our choice.  These are all fresh original Uncirculated coins.  Special runs through 10-03-2023.  Limited to stock on hand.

Have a great week!!

9/20/23

The biggest news of the week was that the UAW and the “Big Three” failed to reach any kind of agreement and the UAW has called a strike.  While the automakers made enhanced offers on pay and benefits the UAW is not budging in its demands of a return to a full pension program, shorter work week, and a 40% pay increase, among other things.  For investors the most troubling aspect would be a return to the traditional pension plan from the past.  Many analysts have concluded that the debt burden of the pension plan was a major contributing factor to the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler and near bankruptcy of Ford during the 07-08 economic collapse.

PPI and CPI numbers both came in hot which means that inflation isn’t going away any time soon.  Oil prices continue to rise putting further pressure on the economy.  Consumer spending rose less than the rate of inflation which, ultimately, is a contraction in spending.  The FED is unlikely to raise interest rates this month but be prepared for another rate increase in October if the inflation rate comes in higher than expected for September.

The National Debt topped $33 trillion over the weekend.  The Government’s refusal to put away the credit card is also contributing to inflation, and this continued spending is undermining the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring inflation under control, and diminishing the desirability of the dollar as a stable asset.  We’re not seeing this play out just yet as, in spite of our lack of fiscal responsibility, the dollar is still better than anything else.  

The Silver to Gold Ratio stood at nearly 83.5 to 1 this morning.  Silver is cheap relative to gold and is still less than half of the all-time high it set in 2011.  

Take control over your financial future and insulate yourself from inflationary Government policy.  Add some silver to your portfolio today.

9/13/23

Metals were lower last week largely as a result of U.S. Dollar strength relative to other major currencies.  Economic uncertainty in China and the Eurozone has led to a flight to the dollar as our economy remains fragile, yet resilient in the face of inflation, increased interest rates and a tightening labor market.   Later this week CPI and PPI numbers will be released giving us a better indication of what path the Federal Reserve is likely to take regarding interest rates.  Credit card debt and credit card delinquencies are both in record territory as people continue to get squeezed by inflation.  Saudi Arabia extended its 1 million barrel per day production cut through the end of the year.  Oil prices have risen around 15% since mid august and will continue to add inflationary pressures to the global economy.  The UAW continues to negotiate with major U.S. Auto makers regarding a new contract.  Though the sides remain far apart it is increasingly likely that a deal will be reached before the strike deadline.  A strike would have much broader impacts across the economy than just the temporary loss of 146,000 direct jobs. 

The White House continues to try to put a rosy spin on economic numbers that show a troublesome trend to the negative.  No amount of wishing it away will change the underlying reality that a deeper dive into the numbers shows that our economy is not doing well, we’re just in better shape than most of our global partners.  As defaults inevitably increase in the consumer and commercial debt arenas look for additional pressure on the banking system and further consolidation in the banking industry as some smaller banks face a liquidity crisis.

Gold and Silver are traditional hedges against inflation and have been “money” for 6,000 years.  That won’t be changing anytime soon.  Adding metal to your portfolio provides some certainty and safety in our increasingly uncertain economic times.  Each day leads us another day closer to the inevitable crisis that will come with unsustainable levels of debt that exist in every facet of our society.  Ask yourself, “Are you prepared?”  

9/13/23

Metals were lower last week largely as a result of U.S. Dollar strength relative to other major currencies.  Economic uncertainty in China and the Eurozone has led to a flight to the dollar as our economy remains fragile, yet resilient in the face of inflation, increased interest rates and a tightening labor market.   Later this week CPI and PPI numbers will be released giving us a better indication of what path the Federal Reserve is likely to take regarding interest rates.  Credit card debt and credit card delinquencies are both in record territory as people continue to get squeezed by inflation.  Saudi Arabia extended its 1 million barrel per day production cut through the end of the year.  Oil prices have risen around 15% since mid august and will continue to add inflationary pressures to the global economy.  The UAW continues to negotiate with major U.S. Auto makers regarding a new contract.  Though the sides remain far apart it is increasingly likely that a deal will be reached before the strike deadline.  A strike would have much broader impacts across the economy than just the temporary loss of 146,000 direct jobs. 

The White House continues to try to put a rosy spin on economic numbers that show a troublesome trend to the negative.  No amount of wishing it away will change the underlying reality that a deeper dive into the numbers shows that our economy is not doing well, we’re just in better shape than most of our global partners.  As defaults inevitably increase in the consumer and commercial debt arenas look for additional pressure on the banking system and further consolidation in the banking industry as some smaller banks face a liquidity crisis.

Gold and Silver are traditional hedges against inflation and have been “money” for 6,000 years.  That won’t be changing anytime soon.  Adding metal to your portfolio provides some certainty and safety in our increasingly uncertain economic times.  Each day leads us another day closer to the inevitable crisis that will come with unsustainable levels of debt that exist in every facet of our society.  Ask yourself, “Are you prepared?”  

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